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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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